뉴스

STEPI FORESIGHT GROUP

Age and Engage:
Name : 미래연구팀 | Date : 2013.07.02 | Views : 37762

이제 65세 이상 연령층도 과거에 비해 건강과 긴 수명을 영위할 수 있게 되었다. 이에 따라 고정적이었던 은퇴연령 역시 재편될 가능성이 높아지고 있으며 사람들이 일과 여가를 병행할 수 있는 환경으로 바뀌고 있다. 물론 늘어나는 의료보장이 국가의 경제적 부담을 가중시킬 수는 있겠지만 감당할수 없을만큼까지는 아닐 것으로 예상된다. 또한 노인들의 높은 투표율은 정당들로 하여금 그들을 대변하도록 권력관계를 변화시킬 것이다. 정보체계와 새로운 의약품의 개발은 노인들의 자립을 도울 것으로 전망되는 바, 앞으로 노인층은 사회의 보다 힘있는 세력으로 재탄생할 것이며 이에 따른 사회적, 경제적 파급효과는 상당할 것이다.

 

Discussion

Those over 65 are healthier and living longer. The set retirement age may be scrapped, allowing people to mix work with leisure. Though healthcare may be an increasing economic burden on the state, it may not be unmanageable. Older people’s greater tendency to vote may result in a power shift as political parties court their vote. Intelligent domestic systems, and new drugs, may aid self-sufficiency.

ONS Projections [1] for 2030 indicate a relatively rapid ageing of the UK population over the next 30 years, and robust sources such as the Pensions Commission [2] project life expectancy among men at 65 years to rise from 84 today to around 87 years by 2030. Some experts have even gone further than this, with some optimistically projecting average life expectancy of 100 years of age [3], or higher [4]. However, even the most authoritative sources have been surprised by the increases in longevity over recent years and have had to revise estimates substantially, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty [5] , [6].

The outcome of this is that even the most cautious estimates suggest that by 2020 one fifth of the UK population will be over 65 years old and nearly half of these will be will be aged 75 years and over, and by 2030, it is estimated that nearly half the population of Western Europe will be over 50 years. [5]. As affluence rises and longevity increases, we are already witnessing rapidly declining fertility in many developing economies [5] , the speed of which has, for example, caused the UN to revise its population growth estimates several times in recent years.

This widely discussed phenomenon, dubbed the “Age shift” by the OSI Foresight programme [7], is by no means likely to be confined to the UK or other developed economies, and will be likely to have an effect on an increasing number of developing countries also.

The “Age and Engage” mini-scenario put forward by this paper sketches out a world in which the senior citizens of 2030 (the 65yrs+ cohort) have grasped new and powerful means by which to pursue their social, political and economic interests. This has been achieved through a combination of their new found electoral, technological and cultural strength, and the growing pressures of competition in a global economy in which more and more of the population are required to be economically productive in order to sustain their living standards.

In parallel, we might expect a cultural shift in which societies previously in thrall to the cult of youth have rediscovered their appreciation for the value of older citizens.

In the Age and Engage world of 2030, this now confident and assertive age group have been offered a new lease of life through a combination of advances which render current associations with “old age” obsolete.

These advances are likely to arise in science (e.g. understanding of genetic research [4], healthcare (e.g. cancer mitigation [5]) and technology (e.g. cognitive enhancement drugs [8]), equipping people previously considered ready only for retirement with the intellectual, economic and physical means to compete for positional, social and material goods on a much more equal footing with those much younger themselves. Less “retirement” then, and more “engagement”.

We might argue that this is merely a reversion to the traditional pattern of human societies, in which elders in society are accorded higher status, and provided with many levers of power and influence. The youth-focussed era that has dominated much of modern global culture since the 1950s could in fact be seen as a temporary anomaly.

share
QRcode
  • twitter
  • facebook
  • me2day
  • yozm
  • cyworld
  • delicious
%s1 / %s2
 
List Gallery Webzine RSS FEED

No File Subject Name Date Views
79 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2014.03.10 34,256
78 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2014.02.28 33,943
77 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2014.01.02 30,792
76 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.08.12 34,316
blank 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.07.02 37,763
74 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.03.27 30,706
73 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.03.26 36,242
72 pdf 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.02.25 35,028
71 pdf 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.02.19 26,637
70 pdf 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.01.31 32,950
69 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.01.14 31,883
68 pdf 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2013.01.11 38,743
67 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.12.28 35,788
66 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.12.26 28,154
65 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.12.24 38,373
64 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.11.28 35,790
63 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.11.16 38,110
62 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.11.14 31,012
61 jpg 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.11.09 36,508
60 pdf 쪽지발송미래연구팀 2012.10.19 36,958