뉴스

STEPI FORESIGHT GROUP

Age and Engage:
Name : 미래연구팀 | Date : 2013.07.02 | Views : 38626

이제 65세 이상 연령층도 과거에 비해 건강과 긴 수명을 영위할 수 있게 되었다. 이에 따라 고정적이었던 은퇴연령 역시 재편될 가능성이 높아지고 있으며 사람들이 일과 여가를 병행할 수 있는 환경으로 바뀌고 있다. 물론 늘어나는 의료보장이 국가의 경제적 부담을 가중시킬 수는 있겠지만 감당할수 없을만큼까지는 아닐 것으로 예상된다. 또한 노인들의 높은 투표율은 정당들로 하여금 그들을 대변하도록 권력관계를 변화시킬 것이다. 정보체계와 새로운 의약품의 개발은 노인들의 자립을 도울 것으로 전망되는 바, 앞으로 노인층은 사회의 보다 힘있는 세력으로 재탄생할 것이며 이에 따른 사회적, 경제적 파급효과는 상당할 것이다.

 

Discussion

Those over 65 are healthier and living longer. The set retirement age may be scrapped, allowing people to mix work with leisure. Though healthcare may be an increasing economic burden on the state, it may not be unmanageable. Older people’s greater tendency to vote may result in a power shift as political parties court their vote. Intelligent domestic systems, and new drugs, may aid self-sufficiency.

ONS Projections [1] for 2030 indicate a relatively rapid ageing of the UK population over the next 30 years, and robust sources such as the Pensions Commission [2] project life expectancy among men at 65 years to rise from 84 today to around 87 years by 2030. Some experts have even gone further than this, with some optimistically projecting average life expectancy of 100 years of age [3], or higher [4]. However, even the most authoritative sources have been surprised by the increases in longevity over recent years and have had to revise estimates substantially, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty [5] , [6].

The outcome of this is that even the most cautious estimates suggest that by 2020 one fifth of the UK population will be over 65 years old and nearly half of these will be will be aged 75 years and over, and by 2030, it is estimated that nearly half the population of Western Europe will be over 50 years. [5]. As affluence rises and longevity increases, we are already witnessing rapidly declining fertility in many developing economies [5] , the speed of which has, for example, caused the UN to revise its population growth estimates several times in recent years.

This widely discussed phenomenon, dubbed the “Age shift” by the OSI Foresight programme [7], is by no means likely to be confined to the UK or other developed economies, and will be likely to have an effect on an increasing number of developing countries also.

The “Age and Engage” mini-scenario put forward by this paper sketches out a world in which the senior citizens of 2030 (the 65yrs+ cohort) have grasped new and powerful means by which to pursue their social, political and economic interests. This has been achieved through a combination of their new found electoral, technological and cultural strength, and the growing pressures of competition in a global economy in which more and more of the population are required to be economically productive in order to sustain their living standards.

In parallel, we might expect a cultural shift in which societies previously in thrall to the cult of youth have rediscovered their appreciation for the value of older citizens.

In the Age and Engage world of 2030, this now confident and assertive age group have been offered a new lease of life through a combination of advances which render current associations with “old age” obsolete.

These advances are likely to arise in science (e.g. understanding of genetic research [4], healthcare (e.g. cancer mitigation [5]) and technology (e.g. cognitive enhancement drugs [8]), equipping people previously considered ready only for retirement with the intellectual, economic and physical means to compete for positional, social and material goods on a much more equal footing with those much younger themselves. Less “retirement” then, and more “engagement”.

We might argue that this is merely a reversion to the traditional pattern of human societies, in which elders in society are accorded higher status, and provided with many levers of power and influence. The youth-focussed era that has dominated much of modern global culture since the 1950s could in fact be seen as a temporary anomaly.

share
QRcode
  • twitter
  • facebook
  • me2day
  • yozm
  • cyworld
  • delicious
%s1 / %s2
 
List Gallery Webzine RSS FEED

No ThumbNail Subject Name Date
99
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2016 (2016년 10대 혁신기술) MIT에서는 2002년부터 혁신기술 10가지를 선정해 해마다 발표하고 있으며, 올해 15번...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2016.05.25
98
‘The European Environment State and Outlook 2015’ 2015년에 발표된 ‘The European Environment State and Outlook 2015’는 경제적 번영과 인간의...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2016.04.01
97
2nd Asia Pacific Futurist Network The Graduate Institute of Future Studies held the “Second Meeting of the Asia-Pacific ...Futures Netwo...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2016.03.22
96
과학기술정책연구원(이하 STEPI, 원장 송종국)은 10월 23일(금) 오후 2시 30분부터 대전컨벤션센터(DCC) 1층 중회의실(101-102호)에서 ‘Systemic Approach in...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.12.27
95
Climate Change 2014 - Synthesis report (IPCC 제5차 종합보고서) IPCC는 세계기상기구(WMO)와 유엔환경계획(UNEP)이 기후변화와 관련된 전 지구적인 환경...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.12.25
94
"포스트 휴먼 시대, 기계와 인간의 경계가 모호해진다" "가장 인간다운 인간이란 무엇인가?" 컴퓨터가 얼마나 인간적인가를 테스트하는 과정에...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.09.30
93
“2040년의 세계는 어떠한 에너지 소비를 보일까?” 이 “The Outlook for Energy" 보고서는 에너지 수요와 공급에 대한 장기적인 글로벌 시각 담고 있다. 에너...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.08.31
92
Food and water gaps to 2050: Preliminary results from the global food and water system (GFWS) platform 본 보고서는 GFWS(Global Food and Wate...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.08.03
91
미래인식보고서: NHK 다큐의 주요 내용 일본 NHK에서는 2015년 1월 3일부터 근미래인 2045년도의 모습을 상상하는 5부작 특집 다큐멘터리 ‘NEXT WORLD'를 ...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.07.27
90
본 보고서는 유럽통합기금(EIF)의 출연으로 조사된 EU 회원국들 이민자들의 통합 정도를 평가하기 위한 것으로 핀란드, 독일, 루마니아, 스페인 등 북유럽, ...
쪽지발송미래연구팀 2015.05.31